A Milestone in Military Transformation
In April 2025, the Military Committee agreed on a new NATO policy regarding the Long Term Military Strategic Shaping (LTMSS). This decision marks a key milestone in the implementation of the NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept, the Alliance’s North Star vision for military transformation.
This new policy frames Alliance’s efforts to shape the evolution of the strategic environment to its advantage. It is geared towards three overarching objectives:
- Setting conditions to preserve NATO’s freedom of decision and action;
- Positively influencing perceptions, decision-making and behaviour of other actors, and
- Building and maintaining long-term military advantage.
From Awareness to Action
The LTMSS process begins with enhancing NATO’s strategic awareness. Since 2023, ACT conducted in-depth studies on the long-term trajectories of Russia, terrorist groups and organizations, and the evolution of their military strategies and capabilities. A similar study has focused on the People’s Republic of China.
These studies provide the baseline for developing a shared understanding of these trajectories, and how they intersect — or diverge from — NATO’s strategic paths. The main vehicle used to evaluate these dynamics are wargaming and experimentation.
Strategic Wargaming for Strategic Gains
In 2024, ACT launched a new series of Strategic Competition games, such as RED DRAGON and SENTINEL VAGUARD 44. The first wargame on terrorist threats, PHANTOM THREAT 45, is being conducted in Madrid in May 2025. Another, RED HYENA 45, is planned for later this year.
These strategic games help generate the most important element of the LTMSS process – concrete, forward-leaning shaping options that NATO needs to enact today in order to maintain its advantage and freedom of manoeuvre tomorrow.
A Growing Community of Interest, A Shared Vision
The LTMSS initiative is supported by a vibrant and expanding Community of Interest, including representatives from eight Allied nations—Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Türkiye—alongside ACT, Allied Command Operations (ACO), and several NATO Centres of Excellence.
This community comes together annually at the LTMSS Working Group. The next meeting takes place in Madrid in May 2025. This session marks a major milestone: the achievement of Initial Operating Capacity (IOC) for LTMSS, and it will chart the next steps in implementing this new policy.
Shaping Today to Secure Tomorrow
LTMSS represents a fundamental shift in NATO’s strategic mindset—from reactive to proactive, to build advantage and shape the strategic environment to Alliance’s strengths, setting conditions for continued security and strength in a rapidly evolving world.