NATO’s evolution and preparedness for future challenges rest upon the innovative strategies spearheaded by NATO’s strategic warfare development command, Allied Command Transformation. Tasked with steering the Alliance’s modernization and development, the Command’s role is pivotal in shaping NATO’s strategic policies and conceptual frameworks. Central to this effort is the NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept, which sets a 20-year vision for the Alliance.
The NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept serves as a roadmap, driving NATO’s endeavours to innovate, adapt, and strengthen its forces, capabilities, and plans. It contributes to the Alliance’s efforts to reinforce its deterrence and defence posture and offers a vision in support of maintaining and further developing NATO’s decisive military advantage by continuously adapting the military instrument of power.
Defining what the operating environments of the future will look like is a key outcome of Allied Command Transformation’s Strategic Foresight work; an activity that is accomplished in close collaboration with allies to ensure a fully realized picture is generated. The future operating environment provides the conditions to which NATO needs to adapt the military instrument of power.
The Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 updates assumptions and extends the focus of the previous Strategic Foresight Analysis 2017 to assess the major drivers and most relevant implications of the Alliance’s Evolving Security Environment until 2043. The investigation delves deep into the evolving security environment, evaluating what major factors and implications are driving change.
This series of articles will explain each of the drivers for the Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023.
The Age of AI: Navigating the Convergence of Emerging Technologies
The relentless pace of technological transformation is propelling us into an era where the convergence of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies will reshape societies and redefine the nature of warfare. Over the next two decades, the effects and enhancements brought about by these technologies will span multi-dimensional environments, marking a shift towards increasingly autonomous, networked, and precise military capabilities.
In this age of innovation, the speed of technological evolution has outpaced regulations, leading to a complex landscape where opportunities and challenges abound. The NATO Science & Technology Organization’s latest report highlights the defining characteristics of advanced military technologies in the coming years: intelligence, interconnectedness, decentralization, and digitization.
Artificial Intelligence stands at the forefront, offering a prime advantage to nations incorporating it into their military systems. The convergence of Artificial Intelligence with other Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (such as robotics, quantum technology, and biotechnology) will result in cutting-edge discoveries with the potential for increased efficiency and productivity. This, however, comes with risks, including the broadening of attack surfaces and the emergence of new tools for competition and confrontation.
The impact of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies extends beyond the military realm, influencing industries and job markets. Additive manufacturing, for instance, could revolutionize logistics and reshape industries. Quantum sensors may provide unparalleled precision, but their high cost may exacerbate global inequalities. As private sector entities invest heavily in tech development, state and military capabilities become increasingly dependent on public-private partnerships, creating potential security concerns.
NATO will have to promote innovation, collaboration and high levels of research and development to maintain its technological edge amid pervasive competition. The diffusion of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies empowers a diverse range of actors, including less developed countries and non-state entities. The risks of technological surprises and intentional crises triggered by these technologies underscore the urgent need for global cooperation for setting ethical standards, norms, and accountability measures.
In the face of these challenges, self-reliance in critical Emerging and Disruptive Technologies, and effective counter-measures, become paramount. The accelerating rate of technological change demands a reassessment of standards and practices, extending to international cooperation and arms control. Without coordinated efforts, the uncontrolled deployment of these technologies could threaten global peace and security.