Tasks of this command are to design warfighting advantage to shape the future international security environment. Sentinel Vanguard 2044 is a critical part for all future studies and follow-on force development requirements for NATO.
Here’s part of what that war game delivered.
Allied Command Transformation recently designed, and hosted, the Sentinel Vanguard 2044 Wargame. This game is a critical part of the Future Force Study and Long-Term Military Strategic Shaping efforts, designed to test, refine, and shape potential options for NATO’s future force in response to increasingly complex security challenges. The event exemplifies the Alliance’s commitment to force development today and over the next twenty years.
Testing the Future Force: Objectives and Goals
The primary goal of the Sentinel Vanguard 2044 wargame was to assess the most promising force attributes and explore strategic options to address challenges that NATO may face against a near-peer adversary in the future operating environment. The game aimed not only to evaluate key characteristics of the future force but also to provide evidence-based insights into Long-Term Military Strategic Shaping options, with a focus on future deterrence and defence scenarios under NATO’s Article 5 commitment.
Unlike traditional wargames focused on “winning” or achieving immediate operational or tactical success, Sentinel Vanguard 2044 was designed as a “safe-to-fail” environment. This approach allowed players to think beyond conventional boundaries, encouraging broad, creative thinking and exploring a wide range of strategic solutions to contemporary and future challenges.
Sentinel Vanguard brought together over 70 Participants from across the Alliance, an illustration of the professional investment and appreciation of the Force Design work ACT is leading with. I have been particularly pleased with the way the game allows us to aggregate multiple strands of the Transformation work that we as an HQ have embarked on.
– Commodore Ruud Schoonen,
Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Plans and Policy,
NATO Allied Command Transformation
Integration of Artificial Intelligence
Uniquely, Sentinel Vanguard 2044 exploited the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to support decision-making. While human players led the game, they were assisted by AI tools designed to simulate the actions of friend and foe and evaluate the outcomes of different strategic choices. This blend of human and machine decision-making represents a significant leap forward in military wargaming, providing more accurate and nuanced simulations of the dynamic, fast-paced environments that military leaders will face in the future.
A Collaborative Effort: Shaping NATO’s Future
The design of Sentinel Vanguard 44 was a highly collaborative process, drawing input from both of NATO’s Strategic Commands (Allied Command Operations and Allied Command Transformation), Joint Force Commands, Theatre Component Commands, the International Staff and International Military Staff to ensure the exercise reflected the full range of perspectives and force development priorities. Prior to the execution of this wargame, an event was held with NATO’s nations that used Tabletop exercises to solicit the views of representatives from various nations to understand their perspectives on Force Design and the right contribution to future operations. These discussions helped shape the wargame scenarios, ensuring they addressed shared security challenges and integrated the operational realities of today and anticipated challenges of tomorrow. Insights from these collaborations should directly inform NATO’s future planning and capability development.
A Look Ahead: Modelling and Simulation for 2025
Sentinel Vanguard 2044 is part of a series of wargames leading into 2025, where the lessons learned will be incorporated into modelling and simulation to test the options identified and assist with capability decisions and balance of investment. These efforts will provide a clearer picture of how NATO forces can adapt to conflict in the future to meet the Alliances core strategic goals. Wargaming remains a critical tool for ensuring NATO’s readiness for the evolving security landscape.
Reaffirming NATO’s Commitment to the Future
As global security dynamics shift, exercises like Sentinel Vanguard 2044 ensure NATO remains prepared for emerging threats. By investing in wargaming and AI-driven decision-making, NATO is strengthening its military capabilities to stay at the forefront of defence strategy and technology. This wargame reaffirms NATO’s commitment to modernization, ensuring the Alliance is resilient, adaptable, and ready to meet future challenges. Through continued evolution and collaboration, NATO remains a cornerstone of global security, prepared for the challenges of tomorrow.
