NATO’s evolution and preparedness for future challenges rest upon the innovative strategies spearheaded by NATO’s strategic warfare development command, Allied Command Transformation. Tasked with steering the Alliance’s modernization and development, the Command’s role is pivotal in shaping NATO’s strategic policies and conceptual frameworks. Central to this effort is the NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept, which sets a 20-year vision for the Alliance.
The NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept serves as a roadmap, driving NATO’s endeavours to innovate, adapt, and strengthen its forces, capabilities, and plans. It contributes to the Alliance’s efforts to reinforce its deterrence and defence posture and offers a vision in support of maintaining and further developing NATO’s decisive military advantage by continuously adapting the military instrument of power.
Defining what the operating environments of the future will look like is a key outcome of Allied Command Transformation’s Strategic Foresight work; an activity that is accomplished in close collaboration with allies to ensure a fully realized picture is generated. The future operating environment provides the conditions to which NATO needs to adapt the military instrument of power.
The Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 updates assumptions and extends the focus of the previous Strategic Foresight Analysis 2017 to assess the major drivers and most relevant implications of the Alliance’s Evolving Security Environment until 2043. The investigation delves deep into the evolving security environment, evaluating what major factors and implications are driving change.
This series of articles will explain each of the drivers for the Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023.
The Scramble for the Global Commons in the Next Security Era
The coming decades will be marked by a transformative worldwide scramble for the global commons. This will be driven by the pervasive depletion of existing resources and uneven access. The global commons, comprising high seas, atmosphere, outer space, cyberspace, and the polar regions, will witness intensified exploration and exploitation. This race for strategic advantage, control, and denial of access will rely heavily on non-state actors and be propelled by commercial capacities.
Climate breakdown, a defining challenge of the next 20 years, will make global commons more accessible, particularly pushing competition towards the poles and necessitating geoengineering of the atmosphere. The empowerment of technology opens cyberspace to a vast human population, exponentially increasing actors in the space. However, in the absence of efficient global cooperation, these “new frontiers” will remain insufficiently governed, presenting opportunities for strategic advantages and resource acquisition.
The high seas, atmosphere, outer space, and cyberspace, including the Arctic and Antarctica, constitute critical areas for global trade, transportation, energy, and food security. The absence of adequate regulation makes the global commons a potential theatre of competition, leading to challenges in governance.
The high seas, especially areas beyond national jurisdiction, will witness contestation for control over trade and natural resources. Unmanned naval drones, increased sensor density, satellite imagery, and swarming unmanned aerial vehicles will enable blockades and interdiction. Competing claims over disputed territories and climate-induced displacement may escalate transboundary tensions.
The Arctic and Antarctica emerge as strategic focal points due to climate breakdown, transforming them and increasing their significance. These polar regions promise vast natural resources, leading to the contestation of surrounding areas by state and non-state actors.
The atmosphere becomes a new theatre of contestation due to emerging technologies, including the expansion of military and commercial aerial vehicles. Drones, driven by commercialization, transform warfare, creating new efficiencies and vulnerabilities. Worsening climate conditions may drive the development of geoengineering technologies, sparking international debates.
Outer space becomes a significant arena for competition, with the global space industry steadily increasing. Commercial actors’ development of reusable rockets reduces the cost of space access, fostering congestion and competition. The potential profitability of exploiting lunar resources and space-based mining becomes a driving force, with the convergence of advanced technologies enhancing prospects.
Space, as the ultimate ‘high ground,’ grants decisive advantages in warfare, leading to the weaponization of space. Major powers will design exclusive space and lunar stations, while smaller countries cluster with major space nations for security cooperation. However, the development and integration of space-based capabilities remain prohibitive for most nations.
Cyberspace, playing a crucial role in modern societies, will continue to grow in significance. While supporting global trade and services, the cyber domain remains mostly ungoverned and fragmented. The ongoing digital transformation introduces efficiency improvements but also vulnerabilities to malicious cyber activities.
Cyber-attacks in the next two decades may vary in scale and impact, posing challenges in distinguishing acts of espionage, aggression, and war. The cyber domain’s characteristics, including anonymity and deniability, contribute to the emergence of new complexities. Governance challenges persist due to differing national perspectives on international law in cyberspace.
Major powers are better equipped to innovate in cyberspace, leading to a widening gap with other nations. National weaknesses in cyber capabilities will be exposed, emphasizing the need for technological expertise and collaboration with the private sector. Smaller nations will increasingly rely on external capabilities to cope with cyber challenges.
As the global scramble for the commons unfolds, potential strategic shocks loom, including unintended escalation, interdiction of critical infrastructure, autonomous actors causing strategic disruptions in cyberspace, and attacks against satellite constellations.