From 7 to 9 January 2026, NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), in partnership with Wilton Park – an executive agency of the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office – and the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), convened a strategic-level conference examining how Russia’s war on Ukraine can inform NATO’s approach to strategy, deterrence, and long-term strategic shaping.
The dialogue was anchored in the Allied commitment reaffirmed at the 2024 Washington Summit, which recognised that a strong, independent, and democratic Ukraine is vital to the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area. Building on this political foundation, the conference focused on how NATO and Ukraine can move beyond predominantly operational and tactical assessments to more fully integrate strategic and political lessons into future Alliance decision-making.
Objectives and Strategic Context
The conference was designed to advance three core objectives: to stimulate ACT’s strategic initiatives on scanning the strategic environment and leveraging perspectives from the war in Ukraine to drive Alliance transformation; to support the programme of work of the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC); and to deepen strategic thinking on NATO’s and Ukraine’s long-term military strategic shaping and strategy development.
Discussions were framed by the recognition that, while NATO has shaped its strategic environment since 1949 through deterrence and defence, enlargement, partnerships, and crisis management, the Alliance has not always articulated a coherent long-term strategy towards Ukraine. Since 2014, Ukraine itself has been actively shaping its strategic environment under conditions of sustained conflict, offering unique insights into strategic adaptation, resilience, and deterrence under pressure.
Participants and Format
The conference brought together approximately 60 participants from across the NATO enterprise, Allied and partner nations, Ukraine, government, academia, and research institutions. Ukrainian participation was a particular strength of the event, with representatives from political, military, research, and civil society organisations providing first-hand perspectives grounded in lived experience of strategic competition and war.
The programme combined plenary roundtable discussions with smaller breakout groups, enabling candid, non-attributable exchanges in line with the Wilton Park protocol. This participatory format encouraged frank debate and the development of fresh insights across strategic and strategic-operational levels.
Key Themes
Across the three days, discussions addressed a set of interlinked themes, including shaping the strategic environment; strategic-operational convergence; proactive and intra-war deterrence and escalation dynamics; the role of U.S. strategic posture; political warfare; NATO strategy towards Ukraine; Ukraine’s strategy vis-à-vis Russia; and the practical application of grand strategy in conditions of prolonged competition and conflict.
A central question running throughout the dialogue was how NATO can more deliberately align ends, ways, means, and risk to develop a coherent political-strategic theory of victory, and how this aligns with Ukraine’s own strategic objectives.
Outcomes and Way Ahead
The conference demonstrated the value of close NATO-Ukraine collaboration in strategic-level analysis and reinforced ACT’s role as a catalyst for long-term transformation. Insights and recommendations generated during the discussions will be captured in a post-conference report and circulated among participants. Outcomes will inform ongoing ACT and NATO-Ukraine JATEC work.
By deepening shared understanding of strategic perspectives from Ukraine and their implications for deterrence and shaping, the event contributed to strengthening the Alliance’s ability to proactively shape its future strategic environment while continuing to support Ukraine in its existential struggle.