Defining what the operating environments of the future will look like is a key outcome of Allied Command Transformation’s Strategic Foresight work; an activity that is accomplished in close collaboration with allies to ensure a fully realized picture is generated. The future operating environment provides the conditions to which NATO needs to adapt the military instrument of power.
Advancements in technology are triggering unprecedented interconnectivity among individuals and groups, reshaping the dynamics of the security environment. Human networks, intricate webs of interconnected relationships facilitating information exchange and collaboration, are gaining prominence. Their agility and adaptability make them formidable players, capable of independent action and, at times, are in direct contradiction to state actors.
Human networks are poised to undergo transformative changes in both digital and physical realms, achieving new levels of efficiency while adopting new behavioural patterns due to use of technology. Immersive digital communication tools, for instance, facilitate efficient global collaboration, eroding geographical boundaries and challenging traditional institutions and values like patriotism. The role of artificial intelligence in interpersonal trust and reliance patterns is evolving, potentially decentralizing governance and posing challenges to established institutions.
The convergence of digital and physical security is becoming more pronounced as the ability to transmit and protect data becomes a key resource for human networks. This necessitates new capabilities to safeguard national and Allied cohesion, as well as the efficiency of centralized structures like governments and armed forces.
Traditional categories of state-provided security are becoming blurred, encompassing cyber and physical domains, public and private spheres, and domestic and international arenas. The commercial sector is expected to play a crucial role, augmenting or even replacing state services. Non-state actors, including private and illicit networks, are gaining influence, leveraging technology for enhanced adaptability, albeit with higher attrition rates.
Technology-driven changes are not only shaping security dynamics but also influencing economic and ideological landscapes. Globalized networks facilitate the diffusion of ideas, fostering economic growth but also contributing to polarization. Exponential technological changes, particularly in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, are empowering violent non-state actors, enabled by automation, additive manufacturing, and the cyber domain. Their autonomous operations span vast geographical regions, challenging countries and societies.
The rise of technology-enabled super-wealthy individuals is influencing international relations, potentially contesting the power and responsibilities of states. Simultaneously, inequalities are increasing, leading to social unrest, populism, and violations of human rights. The ability to generate and protect data, innovate solutions, and support state services becomes pivotal for societal resilience in this fragmented security environment.
Urban areas, which are like concentrated human networks, are becoming centres of wealth, innovation, and political power. However, challenges like climate breakdown, resource scarcity, and diseases deepen as megacities grow. The urban-rural divide exacerbates tensions within states, potentially leading to greater autonomy for robust cities.
Artificial Intelligence-based disinformation poses challenges in distinguishing fact from fiction, potentially increasing violence and terrorism globally. Social media and gaming influence cognitive and physical skills, contributing to the rise of global social movements. As values evolve, economic and political challenges may reshape ideologies, fueled by disinformation and the weaponization of public opinion.