Defining what the operating environments of the future will look like is a key outcome of Allied Command Transformation’s Strategic Foresight work; an activity that is accomplished in close collaboration with allies to ensure a fully realized picture is generated. The future operating environment provides the conditions to which NATO needs to adapt the military instrument of power.
Resource scarcity, propelled by climate breakdown and the depletion of vital ecosystems, is reshaping the dynamics of global security. The demand for renewable and non-renewable resources intensifies, setting the stage for heightened competition and potential confrontation. The adverse impacts cut across sectors, from agriculture to energy, triggering inequities with far-reaching consequences.
As agricultural production rises globally, uneven access persists, leading to lasting challenges. Expanding land use, driven by deforestation, contributes to land degradation especially in regions lacking sustainable agricultural practices. Addressing this requires technological solutions like irrigation enabled by Artificial Intelligence, vertical farming, and precision agriculture. These innovations may become arenas for competitive influence.
Water scarcity emerges as a critical concern, impacting sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. The lack of fresh water resources exacerbates instability, inequality, discrimination, and poverty, creating conditions for external influence, transnational crime, and terrorism. Water, the potential “oil of the 21st century,” may also intensify geopolitical tensions.
Mining and processing of mineral resources, particularly coal, add to water stress, affecting regions globally. Non-renewable resource depletion heightens vulnerabilities, influencing geopolitical rivalries, mining patterns, and access to critical resources. Such instabilities pose challenges to supply chain security, affecting trust, globalization, and economic cooperation.
The Green Energy Transition emerges as a central theme for future security. Cooperation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy is crucial. However, financial limitations and competition may hinder this transition. The success of Green Energy Technology depends on equitable access to critical rare earth materials, creating potential for powerful commercial actors to shape political landscapes.
Electricity demand continues to rise globally, with renewable sources becoming more economically viable. However, this transition introduces new dependencies on strategic competitors. The security of electric grids becomes paramount, facing threats from cyber-attacks and extreme climate events.
In the transportation sector, the rise of electric vehicles promises transformative change. Global sales of electric vehicles may skyrocket, impacting energy profiles and necessitating strategic planning by armed forces. Successful adaptation relies on state efficiency and collaboration with non-state actors.
As the world grapples with resource scarcity, potential strategic shocks loom. Confrontations over limited resources, popular uprisings due to environmental deterioration, market asymmetries, disruptions to electric grids, and challenges to military capabilities amid energy transition policies are among the potential shocks.
Efforts to secure critical resources may lead to the establishment of new multilateral frameworks and security alliances. In the next two decades non-state actors may gain control over resource access, and knowledge, both physical and virtual, and will become a battleground in an era of pervasive competition.