NATO Long-Term Military Transformation (LTMT)
The Long-Term Military Transformation programme is Allied Command Transformation’s process for anticipating and preparing for the ambiguous, complex and rapidly changing future security environment. The first component is the Strategic Foresight Analysis. The second component is the Framework for Future Alliance Operations. The Long-Term Military Transformation informs decisions and actions that are required to prepare the Alliance for tomorrow’s security challenges.
NATO's Allied Command Transformation promotes and leads many initiatives designed to transform NATO's military structure, its forces, capabilities and doctrine. To provide a foundation for this work, Allied Command Transformation conducts strategic foresight analysis to identify future global trends and to identify potential military implications for the Alliance.
This foresight work is known as Allied Command Transformation’s Long-Term Military Transformation programme. Within theLong-Term Military Transformation programme, every four years, Allied Command Transformation conducts a comprehensive look at the global security environment and describes it in two visionary documents. These documents are the Strategic Foresight Analysis and the Framework for Future Alliance Operations.
Although Allied Command Transformation is based in Norfolk, Virginia, the foresight work takes a global approach, holding annual conferences in USA and Europe that bring together the Allied Nations, NATO Centres of Excellence, and other key stake-holders, including members of academia and industry.
The overall purpose of Allied Command Transformation’s Futures Work is to describe the trends, future security challenges, potential opportunities and the related military implications that shape the future security environment, and to recommend the abilities that NATO forces may need to address them.
Strategic Foresight Analysis
The Strategic Foresight Analysis Report provides a wide-ranging shared understanding of the future security environment that is expected to unfold out to 2035 and beyond. The Report depicts political, social, technological, economic, and environmental trends and their implications. The latest Strategic Foresight Analysis Report is the 2017 Report, which builds upon the Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 and 2015 Update Reports.
The aim of the Strategic Foresight Analysis Report is to identify trends that will shape the future strategic context and derive implications for the Alliance out to 2035 and beyond. The Strategic Foresight Analysis does not attempt to predict the future, for the future is neither predictable nor predetermined. It provides an iterative assessment of trends and their implications to understand and visualise the nature of the dynamic and complex security environment.
The Strategic Foresight Analysis is the initial phase of the ongoing Long-Term Military Transformation efforts at Allied Command Transformation and sets the intellectual foundation for a follow-on report, the Framework for Future Alliance Operations.
The Strategic Foresight Analysis Report examines the main trends of global change and the resultant defence and security implications for NATO, highlighting challenges as well as opportunities. It is structured along the following themes: political, human, technology, economics/resources and environment.
The new Strategic Foresight Analysis 2017 Report is coming soon and will be released in the fall. This report will be shared with the public and available for download.
Framework for Future Alliance Operations
Using the Strategic Foresight Analysis Reports as its foundation, the Framework for Future Alliance Operations proposes how Alliance forces might plan to transform, and recommends abilities that these forces may need to develop over the next 15 years. The Framework for Future Alliance Operations can be used to inform the NATO Defence Planning Process and be taken into consideration by defence planners to expand the NATO Defence Planning Process into the long-term.
Today, the Alliance military forces face a challenge in that they should adapt, evolve and innovate to meet an ambiguous, complex, and rapidly changing security environment. The Framework for Future Alliance Operations is a document that seeks to identify the abilities of a future Alliance pool of forces to meet the potential demands of the security environment from today through to the foreseeable future, 2035 and beyond. The Framework for Future Alliance Operations is designed to improve the Alliance’s long-term perspective of the future security environment to support and inform the NATO Defence Planning Process, as well as other NATO and national processes that require an assessment of the long-term future.
Overall, the future security environment through 2035 and beyond will likely be increasingly complex and present both challenges and opportunities to NATO’s military forces. A wide variety of drivers could lead to instability situations resulting in the Alliance’s decision to employ military forces. NATO military forces will need to apply the existing tenets of the law of armed conflict in new contexts, including emerging areas of ethical concern (e.g., human enhancement, cyber, the employment of automation/artificial intelligence, and blurring lines between combatants and non-combatants). However, NATO military forces could seize many opportunities in the future, including building and strengthening relationships, capitalising on innovative technology, ideas to maintain the military edge, as well as understanding and influencing the human aspects of conflict.
This document represents best military advice developed in concert with NATO nations, partners, centres of excellence, and other key stakeholders. The analysis provided within will change as events unfold the future security environment. As such, this document provides only a baseline for further discussion and debate to inform decision-making and set the conditions for the success of alliance military forces in the future.
Visit here to see our archive of previous Futures Studies and Workshop Reports.
NATO'S Long-term Military Transformation Workshop, 28-30 March 2017, NATO Defense College, Rome, Italy
Workshop Invitation Letter | Agenda | Read Ahead | Administrative Instructions | FFAO Rome Workshop SACT COS Thank You Letter | FFAO Rome Workshop SACT DCOS SPP letter | FFAO Rome Workshop Report | FFAO Rome Workshop Out brief Slides
NATO'S Long-term Military Transformation Workshop, 26-30 September 2016, Bydgoszcz, Poland
SFA Workshop Introduction (~4MB) | FFAO Workshop Introduction (~9MB) | UK MOD DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme (~5MB) | Assassin Bots Trained to Kill Reef-eating Starfish (mp4 video, ~14MB) | Capuchin Monkey Fairness Experiment (mp4 video, ~2MB)
NATO'S Long-term Military Transformation Workshop, 19-22 April 2016, Lucerne, Switzerland
Read-ahead documents | SFA FFAO - HNR Welcoming Remarks | Workshop Presentations | Australian Defence White Paper | Out-brief slides | Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) Workshop Report, 19-20 April 2016
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2015 Update Report WS-2
Strategic Foresight Analysis Interim Update Workshop - II
RADM Pete GUMATAOTAO (US Navy) - Deputy Chief of Staff Strategic Plans and Policy
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2015 Update Workshop
Mr. Mehmet Kinaci & LTC Aaron Bazin - Strategic Analysis Branch, Strategic Plans and Policy
U.S. Joint Staff Futures Series - Briefing to NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis Workshop
Duncan Brown, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab
--- This presentation is password-protected. Password should be requested to the Workshop organizers. ---
Emerging Risks and Disruptive Trends in (Global) Supply Chain Networks
Dipl.-Ing. Johannes Göllner, MSc - Section Head, Knowledge Management - National Defence Academy, Austrian Ministry of Defence and Sports
Dr. Joachim Klerx, Senior Researcher - Innovation Systems Department, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH
Strategic Foresight 2040 - Capability Planning in the German Armed Forces
Dr. Olaf Theiler - Future Analysis Branch, Bundeswehr Planning Office
Framework for Future Alliance Operations 2017